Here's the Guardian article

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5309601.ece

It has been a while since our last polling evidence, but this is the clearest sign yet that the trend continues - and is real.

The poll puts the Conservatives on 39 per cent, down 2 per cent, Labour on 35 per cent, unchanged from November, and the Liberal Democrats on 17 per cent, up one. It is the narrowest Tory lead in a Populus poll since March.

Some very interesting numbers coming out of the latest Comres poll, to be published in the Indy tomorrow.

 PDF here: http://www.communicateresearch.com/page190624540.aspx

New poll puts Labour almost level with the Tories

The YouGov poll was done for the Telegraph and was conducted on Monday evening and Tuesday morning after the PBR

We are now back in hung parliament territory; what a difference a crisis makes - the public know leadership when they see it.

YouGov President Peter Kellner, in a new piece on the Fabian website, addresses the Bradley effect and fears that the polls will be proved wrong by voters who say they will vote Obama choosing not to vote for a black candidate on the day, and explains why the opposite could be true.

New YouGov poll for the Sunday Times:

Conservative 43% (-2)
Labour 33% (+2)
LibDems 14% (-1)

A ComRes poll in the Independent gives 39:27:21. We shouldn't read too much into a single poll (the Weighted Moving Average is 44:25:18) but it does suggest that opinion is more volatile than people think, and that the dreadful headlines might not have done as much harm with the electorate as we'd have thought.

A YouGov poll for today's Telegraph gives the following figures:

Conservatives 45% (-3)
Labour 26% (nc)
Lib Dems 16% (nc)

 

 

Labour Outlook

The excellent ukpollingreport.co.uk carries an item on a Harris poll for the FT that looks at attitudes to the US and to the Labour Party.  This suggests that 13% of the electorate have always voted Labour, and of these 21% won't vote Labour at the next election.

What do people make of this?

(the Poll asks essentially the same question as Harris does)

All the press focused on was the Brown v Miliband ratings. But the real story was how we dropped back as soon as the public thought there was going to be a fight within Labour

A YouGov poll in Friday's Telegraph gives the following figures:

Conservatives: 47
Labour: 23
Lib Dems: 18

 

More details on the specifics and other questions asked over at Labour Outlook 

The final three polls of 2007 showed Labour's ratings up by 3/4%:
YouGov L: 35% (+4) C: 40% (-3) LD: 15% (-1)
ComRes L: 30% (+3) C: 41% (+1) LD: 16% (-2)
ICM: L: 34% (+4) C: 39% (-2) LD: 18% (-1)

Whilst holiday season polls can't be relied on, there is no immediate boost in the final poll for the Lib Dems after Clegg's election. If nothing else, it would seem that absent of bad media headlines Labour's ratings are not staying at the sub 30% level and seem to be rising again.

Recent polls have been a disaster for our party

Brown and Cameron are also vulnerable. They have allowed the buffer institutions of democracy to atrophy. Their party members have been pushed below the salt, and blind - or at least Melbournian - loyalty has gone too.

A new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph shows support for the Tories at its highest level for 15 years.

Con 43% (+5)
Lab 36% (-2)
Lib Dem 14% (-2) 

'Gordon Brown hit by Tory poll surge':
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/13/npoll413.xml

John Curtice analysis: 'Poll signals a Liberal Democrats collapse'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/13/npoll513.xml

A new Ipsos MORI poll in this morning's Sun shows the Tories 3 points ahead of Labour.  To be honest I was expecting it to be a lot worse.  Thou I guess we will have to wait for more polls to see the full effects of the shambles of this last week.

Any Labour PM trying to decide when to call an election should treat the published polls with extreme caution.